Apple iPhone Demand Faces a China Problem as Apple Intelligence and New Siri Fail to Spark Upgrade Buzz
Apple’s next wave of iPhone growth may not be as strong as investors hoped, according to fresh survey data from UBS Evidence Lab. While iPhone purchase intent has improved in several major Western markets, demand signals from China appear weaker, and Apple’s biggest upcoming software pitch, Apple Intelligence with a more capable Siri, is not yet convincing many users to upgrade early.
The UBS Evidence Lab survey covered more than 7,500 smartphone users across the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, China, and Japan. The results point to a mixed global picture for Apple, with encouraging signs in some regions but notable concerns in one of the company’s most important markets.
In the United States, the share of consumers planning to buy an iPhone within roughly the next month rose by 3 percentage points year over year, reaching 20 percent of survey respondents. The United Kingdom saw an even stronger increase, with purchase intent rising 6 percentage points. Germany posted a 4 percentage point gain, while Japan improved by 1 percentage point.
China, however, moved in the opposite direction. iPhone purchase intent there fell by 1 percentage point year over year, dropping to just 15 percent of respondents. That decline is significant because China remains a critical market for Apple’s hardware sales, brand momentum, and long-term growth strategy.
The survey also suggests that users are holding on to their iPhones for longer than Apple would likely prefer. The average age of an iPhone in use declined slightly by 0.8 months to 22.9 months, but UBS noted that the figure remains near survey highs. A longer replacement cycle can make it harder for Apple to drive consistent iPhone revenue growth, especially if consumers become more selective about upgrading.
That issue could become even more important if future iPhone models arrive with higher price tags. Reports and expectations around premium models, including a possible iPhone 18 Pro priced around $1,399, suggest Apple may be leaning further into premium pricing. If upgrade cycles are already stretched, higher prices could make consumers even slower to replace their devices.
The biggest concern from the survey may be the lukewarm reaction to Apple Intelligence and the upcoming upgraded Siri experience. Apple has been positioning its artificial intelligence features as a major reason for users to move to newer iPhones, but the UBS data suggests that message is not yet landing strongly.
The percentage of respondents who said they would upgrade sooner to access the new AI features fell by 5 percentage points to 24 percent. At the same time, the share of users who said they were indifferent to these features rose by 3 percentage points to 31 percent.
That is a notable warning sign for Apple. The company is expected to rely heavily on Apple Intelligence and a smarter Siri to differentiate upcoming iPhones, especially as hardware changes become more incremental. If consumers do not see these AI features as must-have upgrades, Apple may struggle to use them as a major demand driver.
The survey also raises questions about Apple’s rumored foldable iPhone, often referred to as the iPhone Ultra or iPhone Fold. Interest in the device appears to have softened slightly. UBS measured “net interest” as the difference between respondents who expressed interest and those who were indifferent. That figure declined by 1 percentage point to 39 percent.
There was one positive sign for Apple’s foldable ambitions: favorability toward Apple’s potential foldable iPhone compared with a generic foldable smartphone increased by 6 percentage points. In other words, while overall interest may have slipped, Apple still appears to have a brand advantage if it enters the foldable phone market.
UBS reportedly maintained a Neutral rating on Apple and kept its price target at $296. The broader message from the survey is clear: iPhone demand is not collapsing globally, but Apple’s next major growth catalysts are not yet generating the level of excitement the company may need.
For Apple, the challenge is twofold. It must revive stronger iPhone demand in China while also proving that Apple Intelligence, the new Siri, and future hardware designs such as a foldable iPhone are compelling enough to shorten upgrade cycles. Until then, the iPhone’s growth story may remain more complicated than expected.
