The PC market is facing potential turbulence due to President Trump’s tariffs, but there’s a silver lining: the rise of “AI PCs” may keep demand strong.
PC manufacturers are navigating through uncertain waters as evolving tariffs create a gloomy outlook for future shipments. Recent tariff increases have significantly impacted the PC supply chain, prompting manufacturers to ramp up shipments before they took effect. This strategy temporarily bolstered demand, but the industry might soon feel the full brunt of these tariffs.
According to a report by Counterpoint Research, the PC market experienced modest growth in the second quarter of 2025. Factors such as the looming end of Windows 10, the initial embrace of AI PCs, and stronger commercial demand (spurred by preparations for tariff-related inventory buildup) fueled this growth.
Companies like HP and Dell are adopting a cautious “wait and see” approach, observing how tariffs might evolve. Demand for next-generation PC products is particularly strong in the professional segment, driven by the need to upgrade hardware as the Windows 10 lifecycle ends. On the consumer side, the buzz around “AI PCs” is boosting interest, especially for mid-range laptops, though the broader market remains vulnerable to fluctuation.
Looking ahead to the second half of 2025, PC shipments may decline year-over-year due to tariff-related uncertainties. Nevertheless, the demand for AI PCs is expected to soar in 2026, with predictions that over half of laptops shipped from 2026 onwards will incorporate AI features.
Interestingly, PC manufacturers are shifting their supply chains from China to other regions like Vietnam, India, and Mexico to mitigate tariff risks. However, with potential new semiconductor tariffs looming, the industry faces more uncertainty. Unless tariffs unexpectedly vanish, a slowdown in PC shipments might be unavoidable in the near future.
