PC shipments got a modest boost in Q1 2026, but the reasons behind the uptick suggest tougher times ahead. New data from Counterpoint shows global PC shipments rose 3.2% year over year to 63.3 million units, largely because manufacturers rushed to lock in memory and storage supply before soaring component costs hit retail prices. At the same time, businesses and consumers are being nudged into upgrades as Windows 10 support winds down, accelerating refresh cycles across the industry.
Several major PC brands posted year-over-year shipment growth and gained market share during the quarter. Lenovo, Dell, Apple, and ASUS all moved more units than a year earlier, while HP slipped and the broader pool of smaller PC makers collectively declined.
ASUS and Apple stood out with the biggest jumps. ASUS recorded the fastest growth, surging 20% to 4.8 million units, helped by strong consumer notebook demand. Apple grew 11% to 6.7 million units, supported by the early wave of shipments for new MacBooks that launched in March. With production and deliveries expected to ramp further in the next quarter, Apple could see even stronger momentum soon.
Lenovo maintained its position as the top PC vendor, growing shipments 9% year over year to 16.5 million units. That performance translated into a 26% market share and marked Lenovo’s best first-quarter showing on record. Dell also had a solid quarter, increasing shipments by 8%, driven largely by commercial buyers replacing aging systems. HP, meanwhile, was the notable exception among top brands, posting a 5% decline in shipments, although it still held a comfortable gap over the next tier of competitors. Smaller brands combined fared worse, with shipments down 7%, highlighting how challenging the market is becoming for vendors with less leverage in the supply chain.
The bigger story, however, isn’t the 3.2% growth—it’s what made it happen. Counterpoint attributes much of the Q1 shipment increase to pre-emptive purchasing ahead of memory-led price increases. In other words, PC makers and buyers moved earlier than usual to avoid higher costs later. That kind of demand pull-forward can inflate short-term shipment numbers while setting the market up for weaker quarters afterward.
Component pricing is the pressure point. Counterpoint’s tracking indicates entry-level 8GB DDR4 prices jumped 110%, while an entry-level 1TB SSD without DRAM rose 147%. Higher-end parts reportedly saw even bigger increases. And the forecast doesn’t offer much relief: DRAM prices are expected to rise another 60% and SSD prices another 50% in the coming months, though the exact increase varies depending on the type of memory and storage.
These rising costs aren’t happening in isolation. The continued expansion of AI infrastructure is absorbing huge amounts of memory and storage capacity across the broader tech supply chain, which is pushing up component costs. Counterpoint warns this sustained upward cost pressure is likely to spill over into other key PC components as well, including CPUs, and ultimately translate into higher retail prices. If PC prices climb across mainstream models, it becomes harder for manufacturers to keep offering budget-friendly systems—especially when AI features and new workloads increasingly demand more memory, faster storage, and more capable processors.
The Windows ecosystem shift is the other key driver. The move to Windows 11, along with the emerging Copilot+ category, is encouraging hardware refreshes from chipmakers and prompting PC manufacturers to release updated product lines to match new platform requirements and marketing pushes. That’s helping shipments now, but it doesn’t fully offset the risk that rising prices could dampen demand later in 2026.
Looking ahead, 2026 is shaping up to be a real resilience test for the PC industry. Counterpoint suggests OEM success will hinge on securing reliable supply and shifting away from low-margin entry-level PCs toward more sustainable mid-range and premium systems. The concern is what happens to buyers who simply want affordable, everyday computers. If memory and SSD pricing keeps climbing, mainstream shoppers could be pushed out of comfortable price brackets—especially in the second half of 2026 and into early 2027, when the short-term “buy early” effect fades.
Even if the overall PC market manages to stay afloat, the outlook for price-sensitive segments appears shakier. With no clear sign of memory pricing stabilizing—and with costs rising across the component stack—the next few quarters could reveal whether Q1’s shipment gains were the start of a recovery or just a temporary bump caused by fear of higher prices.
