Apple is enjoying a rare surge of momentum heading into 2025, with analysts now expecting the iPhone 17 lineup to push the company to the top of the global smartphone market. Strong demand, especially in China, is helping Apple build pace at a time when much of the industry is growing only modestly. However, a major change to Apple’s iPhone release schedule could cool that momentum in 2026, even if the broader market’s value continues to rise.
According to new projections from International Data Corporation (IDC), global smartphone shipments are expected to increase 1.5% in 2025, reaching about 1.25 billion units. Apple is forecast to outpace the market, with iPhone shipments rising 6.1% year over year to roughly 247 million units. That’s a notable acceleration compared to the company’s estimated 3.9% growth in 2024.
A big part of the optimism centers on China. IDC notes that Apple led monthly share rankings in October and November, exceeding 20% share and outperforming rivals by a wide margin. That strength prompted IDC to raise its Q4 forecast for Apple’s China performance from 9% to 17% year-over-year growth. As a result, Apple is now projected to finish 2025 with around 3% annual growth in China’s smartphone market—described as a “phenomenal turnaround” compared with earlier expectations that pointed to a 1% decline.
Beyond units, IDC also expects Apple to set records in revenue. The firm forecasts iPhone value exceeding $261 billion in 2025, representing 7.2% year-over-year growth. In other words, Apple isn’t just shipping more phones—it’s also maintaining pricing power and premium positioning, which remains crucial in a maturing smartphone industry.
The picture shifts in 2026. IDC expects the global smartphone industry to face stronger headwinds, largely due to component constraints. Memory chip shortages, in particular, are expected to limit how many devices manufacturers can produce and ship. Under this scenario, global smartphone shipments are projected to decline 0.9% year over year in 2026, a meaningful downgrade from IDC’s earlier outlook that expected 1.2% growth.
Apple could feel an additional, self-inflicted drag next year because it’s reportedly changing how it times its iPhone launches. IDC highlights this as a key reason iOS shipments may dip, stating that Apple’s decision to move the next base iPhone model from fall 2026 to early 2027 is expected to pull down iOS shipments by 4.2% in 2026.
Despite lower expected shipment volume, the overall smartphone market may still grow in value. IDC predicts average selling prices will rise to $465 in 2026, which could push the market to a record-high value of $578.9 billion. That suggests a familiar industry trend: fewer phones sold, but at higher average prices.
So what exactly is changing with Apple’s iPhone release strategy? The reports point to a split launch window designed to reduce strain on suppliers during Apple’s traditionally packed fall season. Under this expected calendar, Apple would introduce its high-end models first—launching iPhone 18 Pro, iPhone 18 Pro Max, and the highly anticipated foldable iPhone in fall 2026. Then, in spring 2027, Apple would follow up with the base iPhone 18, the iPhone 18e, and potentially a delayed iPhone Air 2.
This matters because the base iPhone model typically contributes significant volume, helping Apple sustain shipments through the holiday quarter and beyond. By pushing that model into the following year, Apple may create a temporary gap in demand for buyers who would otherwise choose the standard iPhone at launch—one reason analysts expect the shift to weigh on iOS shipment totals in 2026.
Recent findings from Counterpoint Research reinforce just how powerful Apple’s current cycle has been in China. In October, iPhones reportedly accounted for about a quarter of all smartphones sold in the country—an achievement Apple has only managed once before, back in 2022. The same analysis said China’s overall smartphone sales rose 8% year over year in October, driven heavily by a 37% surge in iPhone sales. Notably, around 80% of those iPhone purchases were tied to the new iPhone 17 lineup, underlining how much Apple’s near-term performance depends on the success of its latest release.
Another Counterpoint Research outlook released later in November suggested Apple is on track—potentially for the first time in more than a decade—to take the top spot in global smartphone leadership, with Samsung in second place. If that projection plays out, the iPhone 17 cycle could represent a turning point year for Apple’s market position.
Still, 2026 could be a more complicated story. Between component shortages and Apple’s possible decision to stagger the iPhone 18 lineup across two seasons, the company may find it harder to maintain the same shipment momentum—especially if consumers decide to wait for the base iPhone 18 in spring 2027 rather than buying earlier.
For smartphone shoppers, the rumored schedule could also reshape the buying calendar. The most premium iPhone models—and a foldable iPhone—may arrive in fall, while the more mainstream iPhone options could land months later. For Apple, the strategy may ease supply chain pressure, but it also raises the stakes for its Pro models to carry more of the holiday-season volume.
The takeaway is clear: Apple’s iPhone 17-fueled rise is real, and 2025 is shaping up to be a standout year for both shipments and revenue. But with industry-wide supply constraints looming and a major iPhone 18 timing shift on the table, the company’s path through 2026 may be less straightforward than its current winning streak suggests.
