IDC’s latest PC market report paints a tougher picture for 2026 than many shoppers and manufacturers expected. After reassessing the impact of ongoing supply chain instability, IDC now forecasts global PC shipments will fall by 11.3% this year, a sharp double-digit decline and a noticeably steeper cut than what the firm projected in its previous outlook.
A major driver behind the downgrade is the expanding impact of DRAM shortages on the consumer PC market. What initially looked like a more contained memory supply issue has spread further across product categories, largely because securing enough capacity has become increasingly difficult. As a result, PC makers are adjusting timelines and pushing out product lines earlier than planned in an attempt to stay ahead of bottlenecks and keep shelves stocked.
IDC also points to broader uncertainty that continues to disrupt planning across the tech sector. Beyond the usual logistics and component constraints, the ongoing Middle East conflict is adding yet another layer of complexity for OEMs, with potential knock-on effects that can reach procurement, production schedules, and overall availability.
To cope, manufacturers are leaning on a set of countermeasures, and one of the most visible for consumers is pricing. IDC notes that average selling prices for consumer PCs are rising quickly. Even with unit shipments expected to drop, the total value of the global PC market is still projected to inch up by 1.6% to about $274 billion—driven largely by higher prices rather than stronger demand.
The takeaway for buyers is straightforward: the era of truly budget-friendly PCs may be fading. As bill of materials costs climb—particularly from memory—PC brands and their supply chain partners are increasingly forced to protect margins by raising prices. IDC’s outlook suggests this isn’t a short-term blip either. Memory shortages are expected to persist well into 2027, and even if pricing pressure starts to ease in 2028, the market is unlikely to return to the pricing levels seen in 2025. Instead, IDC expects a “new normal” where structurally higher PC prices become standard, which may also dampen long-term consumer demand.
PC vendors are testing additional tactics beyond price increases, including trimming product specifications and diversifying sourcing strategies. However, the effectiveness of these moves will take time to measure. The challenge is that DRAM demand isn’t showing signs of slowing in the enterprise world—if anything, adoption has accelerated—leaving major PC brands with limited flexibility when contract memory pricing continues to rise.
With a near-term rebound looking unlikely, IDC’s report suggests the PC market is heading into an extended adjustment period. Many manufacturers are already shifting attention toward enterprise customers to help offset expected weakness in consumer sales, signaling that the next phase of the PC industry may be defined less by bargain hardware and more by constrained supply, higher costs, and a stronger focus on business demand.
