CPU shipments kept climbing in the third quarter of 2025, marking the third straight quarter of gains and an unusual break from traditional seasonal trends. Fresh data from John Peddie Research points to a PC refresh wave spurred mainly by the end-of-support timeline for Windows 10, with earlier momentum helped by tariff uncertainty.
Key takeaways
– Client CPU shipments rose 2.2% quarter over quarter in Q3 2025
– Server CPU shipments increased 2.7% quarter over quarter and 13.7% year over year
– Desktop vs. laptop CPU share settled at roughly 70% to 30%
– Q2’s growth was stronger at 7.9% quarter over quarter, influenced by tariff concerns
– Q4 is expected to be modest, likely mirroring Q3’s pace
What’s driving the upswing
The looming end of life for Windows 10 is pushing users and organizations to upgrade hardware that meets Windows 11’s stricter security requirements, including TPM 2.0 and Secure Boot. Many older processors don’t qualify, prompting a refresh cycle that benefits both client and server CPU shipments. Earlier in the year, uncertainty around potential tariffs pulled some demand forward, amplifying Q2’s spike, but Q3’s gains are more closely tied to the Windows-driven upgrade push.
Client vs. server performance
Client CPUs recorded a 2.2% quarter-on-quarter increase, extending the market’s positive streak to three quarters. Server CPUs continued to look strong as well, up 2.7% quarter over quarter and a notable 13.7% year over year, signaling sustained investment in data center capacity alongside PC refreshes.
Desktop vs. laptop mix
The shipment mix reverted to a familiar split in Q3 2025: approximately 70% desktop and 30% laptop. Laptop share was slightly higher in Q2, but the market has returned to a distribution similar to Q3 2024.
Outlook for Q4
Despite the momentum, expectations for Q4 are tempered. Growth is projected to be modest and similar to Q3, as the market digests earlier purchases and the initial rush of Windows 11-driven upgrades levels off.
What it means for buyers and the industry
– Enterprises and consumers facing Windows 10’s end-of-support date are moving to compliant systems, accelerating the PC refresh cycle.
– OEMs are seeing healthier shipment volumes, with continued, though moderate, support expected into next quarter.
– Data center investment remains robust, reflected in double-digit annual growth for server CPUs.
Bottom line
2025’s CPU market is defying typical seasonality with three consecutive quarters of growth. After tariff worries lifted Q2, Q3’s gains were fueled primarily by Windows 10’s end of life and Windows 11’s security requirements. Expect the recovery to continue into Q4, but at a measured pace.
