Musk and Huang Predict China Could Catch Up in Lithography by 2030

ASML Eyes EUV Lithography Expansion as China Pushes Domestic Chipmaking Tools

ASML is looking for ways to significantly increase production of its extreme ultraviolet lithography machines as global demand for advanced chips continues to surge. The boom in artificial intelligence infrastructure is driving massive investment in semiconductor manufacturing, and chipmakers are racing to secure the equipment needed to build the next generation of processors.

The company is already planning to produce at least 80 EUV lithography systems in 2027. Now, its executives are exploring whether output can be pushed even higher, potentially expanding capacity by around 30% in 2028. That would lift annual production beyond 110 EUV units, helping meet growing demand from major semiconductor manufacturers investing heavily in AI, high-performance computing, and advanced data center hardware.

EUV lithography is one of the most important technologies in modern chip production. These highly complex machines allow manufacturers to create extremely small circuit patterns on silicon wafers, making them essential for producing cutting-edge processors and memory chips. As AI accelerators become more powerful and data centers expand worldwide, demand for advanced manufacturing capacity is rising quickly.

ASML currently holds a dominant position in EUV lithography, making its production roadmap a key factor for the entire semiconductor industry. Any increase in EUV tool output could support faster expansion at leading chip foundries and help ease pressure in the advanced chip supply chain.

However, the long-term outlook is becoming more complicated. China is working to develop its own advanced lithography systems as part of a broader effort to strengthen its domestic semiconductor industry. If Chinese companies succeed in building competitive lithography tools, it could reshape the global equipment market over time and reduce reliance on foreign suppliers.

For now, ASML remains central to the production of the world’s most advanced chips. But China’s push for homegrown lithography technology introduces a new layer of uncertainty for the future. The race is no longer only about producing more machines; it is also about technological independence, supply chain security, and control over the tools that power the AI era.

As investment in artificial intelligence continues to accelerate, EUV lithography capacity will remain one of the semiconductor industry’s most closely watched bottlenecks. ASML’s ability to scale output, combined with China’s progress in domestic chipmaking equipment, could play a major role in shaping the next phase of global semiconductor competition.