Global laptop demand is set to grow steadily over the next five years, with forecasts calling for a compound annual growth rate of about 3% from 2025 through 2030. By 2029, annual notebook shipments are projected to top 200 million units, signaling a healthy, if measured, expansion of the market.
The path won’t be perfectly smooth. After a rebound in 2025, shipment momentum is expected to soften in 2026 as macroeconomic headwinds bite. A combination of a slowing economy, US tariffs, and inflation-driven price increases is likely to keep growth to just a little over 1% year over year. The bigger leap should arrive in 2027, when on-year shipment growth is forecast to peak at roughly 6%, powered by the anticipated launch of Windows 12 and the upgrade cycle it is expected to trigger.
AI-ready hardware and smarter software will be central to this next phase. Advances in small language models and a new wave of processors with stronger on-device AI computing power should accelerate the rollout of AI features that run locally on notebooks. Expect faster, more private, and more power-efficient AI experiences—from real-time transcription and content generation to code assistance—becoming mainstream across a wider range of price points.
Production strategy is evolving as well. Manufacturing bases outside China are steadily closing the gap on efficiency and costs. As these alternative hubs scale up and optimize, they’re poised to support shipment growth while diversifying supply chains, reducing risk, and improving pricing flexibility over time.
Key takeaways for the 2025–2030 notebook outlook:
– Around 3% CAGR is expected for global notebook shipments.
– Annual shipments could surpass 200 million units by 2029.
– 2026 may see only slightly above 1% growth due to economic pressures, tariffs, and inflation.
– 2027 is projected to deliver the strongest yearly growth at about 6%, largely tied to the Windows 12 upgrade cycle.
– AI-centric notebooks will gain traction as small language models and more capable processors enable richer on-device AI features.
– Production diversification outside China should narrow cost and efficiency gaps, supporting more resilient growth.
For buyers and businesses, this translates into a compelling refresh window in the latter half of the decade. Expect more competitive models featuring integrated AI acceleration, longer battery life, and seamless next-gen Windows experiences. For the industry, aligning product roadmaps with the 2027 upgrade wave and investing in diversified manufacturing should be key to capturing the market’s next growth phase.
