A tightening supply of DRAM is expected to push memory prices higher, and that ripple effect could reshape the smartphone chipset market in 2026. New projections from Counterpoint Research suggest the coming year will bring a noticeable dip in global smartphone SoC shipments, even as overall chipset revenue climbs sharply thanks to consumers buying more expensive phones.
The headline forecast is a 7% decline in worldwide smartphone chipset shipments in 2026. On the surface, that sounds like bad news for chipmakers. But the bigger story is where the market is headed: revenue is still expected to grow at a double-digit pace because the mix of phones being sold keeps shifting upward. Counterpoint expects roughly one in three smartphones shipped in 2026 to be a premium device, and that “premiumization” trend typically comes with higher-priced chipsets and higher margins.
Rising DRAM pricing is a key piece of this puzzle. Memory is a major component cost in smartphones, and when DRAM prices climb during a shortage, it doesn’t just affect phone pricing and profit plans—it also influences which models brands prioritize and how many devices they ship. Counterpoint’s view is that higher memory prices, combined with premium devices taking a larger share of shipments and AI features becoming more common, will help lift smartphone SoC revenue even if unit volumes soften.
In terms of market positions, MediaTek is still projected to remain the top smartphone chipset supplier globally in 2026, despite being seen as one of the most exposed players to shipment pressure because a large portion of its revenue relies on SoC volume. Even with that headwind, MediaTek is expected to hold a 34% share in 2026, slightly down from 34.4% in 2025.
The broader market share expectations for 2026 compared to 2025 are as follows:
MediaTek: 34.4% in 2025, 34% in 2026
Qualcomm: 25.1% in 2025, 24.7% in 2026
Apple: 18.3% in 2025, 18.1% in 2026
Samsung: 11.2% in 2025, 12.1% in 2026
While MediaTek, Qualcomm, and Apple are each expected to see slight share declines, Apple and Qualcomm are positioned to gain significantly from the premiumization shift—especially as buyers gravitate toward flagship iPhones or high-end Android devices built around Snapdragon platforms. Premium phones typically command higher chipset pricing, and that helps offset weaker shipment totals.
Counterpoint also emphasizes the accelerating adoption of on-device AI features as another major demand driver. More advanced AI workloads push the need for stronger CPU, GPU, NPU performance, improved memory bandwidth, and better power efficiency—all of which steer the market toward more expensive silicon. According to Counterpoint senior analyst Soumen Mandal, the combination of premiumization, higher memory prices, and rapid AI feature adoption is expected to keep SoC revenue growth strong in 2026, despite near-term shipment pressure.
Looking ahead, the industry is preparing for the transition toward 2nm smartphone chipsets, a milestone that typically brings major performance-per-watt gains. As the market approaches this new node, leading chip designers are expected to lean heavily on architectural upgrades and larger cache configurations to deliver their best smartphone processors yet.
There’s also movement across the competitive landscape. Samsung has revealed what it describes as the world’s first 2nm GAA chipset, the Exynos 2600, positioning it as a key product in the company’s attempt to rebuild momentum in premium silicon. Meanwhile, Apple is reported to have secured a large portion of early 2nm capacity from TSMC for its next-generation A20 and A20 Pro chips, underscoring how intense the race has become for cutting-edge manufacturing.
MediaTek, for its part, has announced a successful tape-out of its own 2nm SoC, the Dimensity 9600. The company is expected to continue using ARM CPU designs rather than switching to in-house cores in the near term, a strategy that can help keep costs down and preserve MediaTek’s ability to price its flagship chipsets more aggressively than Qualcomm. With both DRAM and NAND flash prices trending upward, that cost advantage could become even more attractive to smartphone brands looking to control bill-of-materials expenses—potentially making the Dimensity 9600 a popular choice for upcoming flagship Android phones.
In short, 2026 is shaping up to be a year where smartphone chipset shipments fall, but the money in the market rises. Between higher memory prices, more premium phones, and AI-driven hardware upgrades, the smartphone SoC industry may sell fewer chips overall—yet generate significantly more revenue from the ones it does ship.
