Google’s Tensor G5 may have landed with a thud for fans hoping Google’s first TSMC-built smartphone chip would finally match the best in raw speed and power efficiency. But in an unexpected twist, new industry forecasts suggest Google could still become one of the biggest winners in 2026 when it comes to chipset shipment growth.
According to new projections from Counterpoint Research, the entire smartphone market is heading into a tougher year. Global smartphone shipments are expected to fall 6.1% year over year in 2026, while smartphone SoC (system-on-chip) shipments are projected to drop even more, declining 7% compared to 2025. The reason isn’t just soft demand—it’s also about rising component costs, especially memory.
DRAM and NAND flash are increasingly viewed as major cost drivers, pushing the bill of materials higher for premium devices. For flagship smartphones in particular, memory-related expenses are becoming a much bigger slice of overall manufacturing cost, with BoM pressure rising toward the 20% range for high-end models. When parts get more expensive and harder to secure, phone makers either eat the cost, raise prices, or scale back specs—none of which is ideal for maintaining shipment momentum.
Chinese smartphone brands are expected to feel the biggest impact. Many of them rely heavily on external chip suppliers, mainly Qualcomm and MediaTek. In a constrained environment shaped by a DRAM shortage, that dependency can become a major disadvantage, especially for companies competing aggressively on price and volume.
MediaTek, despite its scale, is believed to be among the most exposed. A large portion of its quarterly revenue is tied directly to chipset shipments, so disruptions tied to memory availability can ripple quickly through its business. Even so, its volume leadership is still expected to keep it at the top for overall shipments in the near term.
Where things get interesting is how strongly Counterpoint believes vertically integrated brands could outperform their peers. Apple, Google, and Samsung are considered better positioned largely because of their integrated supply chains and long-term push toward developing and controlling more of their own silicon strategy.
Counterpoint’s updated forecast highlights this advantage clearly:
Google: 18.9% (new forecast) vs 13.3% (old forecast)
Samsung: 7.3% (new forecast) vs 5.1% (old forecast)
Apple: -4.4% (new forecast) vs -4.4% (old forecast)
In other words, even though Apple is expected to see a decline, its outlook remains steady. Google and Samsung, however, both received notable upward revisions—suggesting stronger confidence in their ability to weather market headwinds and potentially gain share while others contract.
So why is Google expected to grow the most even after a mixed reception for Tensor G5? Counterpoint points to AI-driven differentiation and broader traction outside Google’s core markets. As more consumers prioritize on-device AI features—such as smarter photography, voice tools, and generative AI experiences—Google’s Pixel strategy may translate into higher chip volumes, especially if the company expands its footprint beyond the US and Japan more aggressively.
Samsung, meanwhile, is expected to further strengthen its vertical approach with the launch of the 2nm Exynos 2600. A next-generation node can help on efficiency and performance, and it also supports Samsung’s larger goal of controlling more of its hardware stack, which becomes especially valuable when supply chains tighten.
The broader SoC market outlook remains mixed. Qualcomm and MediaTek may find that premium platforms help offset weakness in the high-volume midrange and entry segments, but they’re still operating in a year where overall SoC shipments are expected to decline. Another player expected to be hit especially hard is UNISOC, largely due to its exposure to the shrinking low-end 4G market.
Counterpoint has also warned previously that rising smartphone BoM could climb even higher—up to 25%—which could force manufacturers into uncomfortable trade-offs. One example floated is the return of lower memory configurations like 4GB RAM on some models as brands attempt to protect margins in a higher-cost environment.
Put it all together and 2026 is shaping up to be a year where the companies with the most control—over silicon, supply chain planning, and premium product direction—are better equipped to keep moving forward. Even if Google’s latest Tensor chip didn’t impress on benchmarks, its bigger mobile strategy may still position it for the strongest year-over-year chipset shipment growth while much of the industry faces a slowdown.
