Electric vehicles (EVs) powered by solid-state batteries are anticipated to gain significant traction starting in 2025, as China ramps up its factory capacity to over 500 GWh by 2030. A timeline offered by a notable Chinese scientist suggests that, while it may take about 20 years for solid-state batteries to dominate half the market due to the longevity of current liquid electrolyte EV batteries, a 1% market share could be an important milestone for the technology’s commercial success.
Ouyang Minggao, a member of the Academy of Sciences and a professor at Tsinghua University, highlighted that solid-state battery market penetration is crucial. Despite the extended lifecycle of liquid electrolyte batteries, the 1% penetration rate serves as a significant indicator for solid-state batteries’ commercial viability. According to CITIC Securities analysts, the 1% marker for global solid-state battery usage could be achieved as early as next year, with projections of a 1.7% rate in various applications, expanding to an 8.4% penetration by 2030.
The importance of solid-state batteries in the market was underscored by the inauguration of ProLogium’s first solid-state battery Gigafactory with a 2 GWh capacity in Taiwan. To put this into perspective, a factory of 130 GWh — scheduled to be operational by 2026 in China — has the potential to supply nearly 1.7 million electric vehicles, each fitted with an average 75 kWh solid-state battery.
Although current production costs for solid-state batteries remain high, they are expected to be initially adopted in sectors less sensitive to price and more focused on safety performance, including aerospace, medical technology, and certain top-tier new energy vehicle (NEV) models. This adoption phase is forecasted to extend into the mass EV market between 2025 and 2030.
Affirmations of these projections are echoed by industry leaders like CATL, the world’s leading battery manufacturer, and automaker Toyota. Toyota plans to roll out its premium Lexus line equipped with its proprietary solid-state batteries, starting with a limited production run in the initial phases.
As the EV market evolves, manufacturers and consumers alike are looking forward to the advanced safety, efficiency, and longevity that solid-state batteries promise to offer. With industry heavyweights and new facilities paving the way, the next decade may well witness a considerable shift in EV battery technology and market dynamics.
