Buying a new PC next year may come with sticker shock. Industry watchers are warning that a major wave of cost increases is building across the PC supply chain, and the biggest culprit is the ongoing “memory supercycle” that’s already pushing RAM prices higher.
The problem isn’t limited to memory alone. As DRAM costs rise, the effect ripples outward—putting pressure on the pricing of many core components that depend on it. At the same time, graphics card makers are also expected to move prices up, adding even more strain for PC gamers and anyone planning a new build or upgrade.
IDC’s latest outlook suggests this could turn into a perfect storm for the PC market. The memory shortage is arriving right when two other big forces are colliding: the Windows 10 end-of-life refresh cycle (which will push many users toward new hardware) and the industry’s ongoing marketing push around AI PCs. Demand rising while supply is constrained is exactly the kind of scenario that can send prices sharply upward.
PC brands are already signaling that increases are on the way. According to IDC, major vendors including Lenovo, Dell, HP, Acer, and ASUS have warned customers that conditions will be tougher, pointing to broad price hikes in the 15% to 20% range along with contract resets as costs intensify into the second half of 2026. For consumers, that translates into a higher total bill—whether you’re shopping for a gaming desktop, a productivity laptop, or parts for a home build.
On top of pricing pressure, IDC expects overall PC shipments to decline by 4.9% next year, with the caveat that the drop could get worse if the memory situation deteriorates further. Fewer shipments and higher prices usually go hand in hand, especially when component supply is the bottleneck.
There’s another twist that could reshape how people buy PCs: larger PC manufacturers may gain market share at the expense of smaller local vendors and DIY-focused system builders. The reasoning is simple—big OEMs can often bundle components and offer prebuilt systems at more “attractive value” compared to buying parts individually during a shortage. If that happens, custom PC building could become significantly more expensive, nudging more buyers toward complete prebuilt desktops and laptops rather than sourcing individual components.
The AI PC trend could also cool off faster than expected. Many on-device AI features require higher memory configurations, and if RAM remains expensive and constrained, manufacturers may pull back on pushing “edge AI” capabilities in mainstream models. Some projections already point toward mid-range laptops sticking with 8GB as a baseline configuration because higher memory tiers could be too costly to maintain at competitive prices—an uncomfortable reality in an era where heavier AI features are being marketed as the next big reason to upgrade.
Taken together, these signals paint a challenging picture for 2026. If the memory supercycle continues to disrupt supply and drive component costs upward, next year could become one of the toughest periods in recent history to buy PC parts—potentially rivaling, or even surpassing, the pricing and availability headaches seen during the COVID-era supply crunch and the crypto-mining boom.
For shoppers planning a new gaming PC, a workstation upgrade, or even a budget build, the takeaway is clear: keep an eye on RAM pricing trends, expect broader component price increases, and consider whether a prebuilt system might offer better overall value if parts pricing becomes increasingly inflated.
