While the United States is still bogged down in political resistance to a Central Bank Digital Currency (often framed as a “Digital Dollar”), the European Union is moving in the opposite direction. The EU’s Digital Euro plan is advancing steadily—and if it arrives as envisioned, it could dramatically reshape how people pay across the euro area, with major consequences for Apple Pay, Google Pay, and even the Visa and Mastercard networks that currently dominate card transactions.
The reason is simple: the Digital Euro is being positioned not as just another payment option, but as a sovereignty project for the bloc. European officials increasingly view reliance on foreign-controlled payment rails as a strategic vulnerability, especially when a large share of day-to-day transactions depend on US-based players. The European Central Bank has noted that international card schemes represented about 61% of euro area card transactions in 2022. Even more striking, 13 of the 20 countries in the Eurosystem reportedly lack a domestic payment card scheme. That leaves a large portion of the region dependent on payment infrastructure that isn’t homegrown.
In that context, the Digital Euro isn’t merely a tech upgrade—it’s a bid to reduce dependence on Visa, Mastercard, and the major mobile wallet layers that sit on top of them, including Apple Pay and Google Pay. The promise is a public, euro-denominated digital payment method that works across borders inside the euro area and remains under European governance.
So how would it work? Under the emerging framework, the Digital Euro would live in dedicated digital wallets. It’s described as “unprogrammable money,” meaning it would function like cash rather than a tool designed for automated restrictions or conditional spending—although transaction limits would still apply. Consumers could use it for everyday commerce: online shopping, paying in physical stores, and sending peer-to-peer payments. The headline feature, however, is cost. Unlike private card networks and the wallet services that rely on them, the Digital Euro is expected to carry no transaction fees. If that holds true at launch, it creates an immediate incentive for merchants and payment providers to support it widely—and for consumers to adopt it quickly.
For Apple, the timing adds to an already challenging environment in Europe. Regulators across the region have been steadily tightening the rules around platform control and app distribution. Apple has been labeled a “gatekeeper” under the EU’s Digital Markets Act after exceeding user thresholds and maintaining a dominant position through the App Store. Gatekeeper obligations have also been applied to iOS and iPadOS, and one of the most significant outcomes has been forcing Apple to allow third-party app stores on its devices in the EU.
Apple has also adjusted its EU-facing developer terms. In March 2024, the company changed conditions for app developers in the region, allowing those who enrolled in a revised program to pay a lower percentage of certain app-related revenue to Apple. At the same time, Apple continues to face legal and regulatory pressure elsewhere in Europe: a Dutch antitrust case could expose the company to significant financial penalties, tied to accusations that Apple abused a dominant position by charging developers excessive fees—often cited at up to 30%. Outside the EU, Switzerland has also opened an antitrust investigation into Apple Pay through its competition authority secretariat.
Put together, this is a two-front challenge: payment disruption on one side and regulatory erosion of Apple’s ecosystem advantages on the other. If the Digital Euro becomes a mainstream, fee-free way to pay across the euro area—usable online, in stores, and between individuals—it could reduce the everyday relevance of Apple Pay in the region. Apple Pay may still exist as a convenient interface for some users and banks, but the underlying economics could shift sharply if merchants and consumers increasingly favor a public alternative that bypasses card schemes and related fees.
The European Central Bank is reportedly aiming for 2029 as a tentative launch target. That leaves years of debate, pilots, and implementation details to resolve—but the direction is clear. The EU is treating the Digital Euro as a strategic infrastructure project, and if it succeeds, it may significantly weaken the role of US card networks and mobile wallet intermediaries in European payments, with Apple Pay among the most exposed.
