Apple’s Reported Intel Chip Deal Seen as Limited Risk to TSMC’s Foundry Dominance
Apple’s possible return to Intel’s chip factories is attracting plenty of attention, but analysts at Bernstein SocGen Group do not see it as a serious threat to Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company. In a new research note, Bernstein argues that TSMC remains the clear leader in advanced semiconductor manufacturing, especially as demand for AI chips continues to accelerate.
According to Bernstein analyst Mark Li, there is currently “no sign” that Intel is closing the technology gap with TSMC. While Apple is reportedly moving closer to a chip manufacturing agreement with Intel, Li believes the deal will likely involve only limited production volumes. That means TSMC is still expected to remain Apple’s most cost-efficient and technologically advanced foundry partner for high-volume, cutting-edge chips.
The reported Apple-Intel partnership is expected to center on Intel’s 18A-P process. Apple may use this manufacturing node for its base M7 chips, which are expected to arrive around 2027. Looking further ahead, Apple’s A21 chip, projected for a 2028 launch, could reportedly be produced using either Intel’s 18A-P technology or Intel’s more advanced 14A process.
Apple has already received process design kit samples from Intel to evaluate the 18A-P node, suggesting that the company is seriously testing Intel’s foundry capabilities. Reports have also indicated that Apple’s upcoming custom ASIC, said to be named Baltra and expected in the 2027 to 2028 timeframe, may use Intel’s EMIB advanced packaging technology.
Even so, Bernstein’s view is that these moves do not meaningfully weaken TSMC’s position. The firm continues to describe TSMC as one of the most reliable long-term beneficiaries of the AI semiconductor boom, citing its strong technology roadmap, cost structure, and manufacturing execution.
Samsung’s foundry business is also improving, but Bernstein believes it still trails TSMC at the leading edge. TSMC is currently viewed as the only major foundry mass-producing what the analyst describes as “true 2nm” chips. By comparison, Samsung’s gate-all-around 2nm node is considered by some industry observers to be closer in performance and density to TSMC’s 3nm-class technology.
The broader takeaway is that Intel and Samsung may win more chipmaking orders over time, but Bernstein expects many of those gains to be driven by geopolitical diversification rather than clear technology superiority. In other words, major chip designers may want alternatives to TSMC for supply chain security, but TSMC is still expected to lead in the most advanced nodes.
There have also been reports that AMD may be turning to Samsung for future 2nm-based processors, including Venice and Veranos CPUs. If accurate, that would signal growing customer interest in alternatives to TSMC. However, it does not necessarily mean TSMC is losing its edge. Instead, it reflects a semiconductor market where large chipmakers are increasingly spreading production across multiple foundry partners.
TSMC, meanwhile, appears determined to defend its leadership. The company is reportedly expanding aggressively, with multiple fabs in various stages of development to support future 2nm and A14, or 1.4nm-class, production. This capacity push is designed to ensure TSMC remains the preferred manufacturing partner for advanced AI accelerators, mobile processors, and high-performance computing chips.
For Apple, testing Intel’s foundry services could be a strategic move. It gives the iPhone maker more flexibility, reduces dependence on a single supplier, and may strengthen its negotiating position. But based on Bernstein’s analysis, Apple’s potential Intel orders are unlikely to represent a major shift away from TSMC in the near term.
The semiconductor industry is entering a new phase where advanced packaging, AI chip demand, geopolitical concerns, and leading-edge process technology all matter at once. Intel is working hard to rebuild its foundry credibility, Samsung is pushing forward with its next-generation nodes, and Apple is exploring more options. Still, TSMC remains the company to beat.
For now, the reported Apple-Intel chip deal looks less like a threat to TSMC and more like a cautious diversification strategy. Unless Intel can prove it has narrowed the technology gap at scale, TSMC’s position in advanced chip manufacturing, especially for AI and premium consumer processors, appears firmly intact.
