Smartphones could get noticeably more expensive in 2026 as the global DRAM crunch intensifies, putting new pressure on manufacturers and potentially shrinking overall phone production. Industry estimates suggest that RAM prices have surged to roughly triple what they were a year ago, and that single change could be enough to reduce smartphone output by as much as 15% next year.
The memory shortage isn’t only affecting phones. Rising DRAM and NAND prices are also lifting costs across a wide range of consumer tech, including SSDs and traditional storage. But smartphones are especially sensitive because modern configurations rely heavily on both fast RAM and ample flash storage. One recent industry assessment indicates that the component cost of a typical smartphone setup with 8GB RAM and 256GB storage has already jumped by around 200% compared with the first quarter of 2025.
That shift dramatically changes the economics of building a phone. Last year, memory and storage generally made up just 10% to 15% of the cost of an average smartphone. Now, the same parts are expected to account for roughly 30% to 40% of total production costs. With additional price increases anticipated throughout 2026, manufacturers may have little choice but to pass at least some of those costs on to customers—meaning higher retail prices for many popular models.
Budget and mid-range phones are likely to feel the impact the most. These devices typically operate on tighter profit margins than premium flagships, leaving brands less room to absorb rising component costs. In other words, even if high-end phones also become more expensive to build, companies often have more flexibility with premium pricing than they do with value-focused devices.
The broader result could be fewer smartphones made worldwide in 2026. Forecasts point to global production falling about 10% to roughly 1.135 billion units, with the possibility of a decline beyond 15% depending on where RAM and storage pricing goes next.
Some manufacturers may be hit harder than others. Chinese smartphone makers are expected to be particularly exposed to the spike in memory costs. Meanwhile, certain large brands may be better positioned to handle the turbulence—especially those that can command higher prices or have more control over their supply chain for memory and storage components.
If the DRAM crisis continues to escalate alongside rising demand from AI-driven data centers and other high-memory markets, 2026 could become a turning point for smartphone pricing and availability. For consumers, that may mean higher prices, fewer aggressive discounts, and more cautious upgrades—especially in the mid-range segment where value has traditionally been the main selling point.
