IDC’s latest data shows a split year for the global PC market in 2025. After a strong start driven by Windows 11 upgrades and accelerated refresh cycles, the momentum in North America faded in the second and third quarters as US import tariffs and broader economic uncertainty cooled demand. Shipments in Q2 and Q3 2025 fell sharply in the region, returning growth closer to Q3 2024 levels after a double-digit surge in Q1 2025 that was fueled by pre-emptive buying ahead of tariff changes.
Despite the slowdown stateside, the worldwide picture remains positive. Asia-Pacific, EMEA, and global totals posted solid gains, with Asia-Pacific standing out. The region grew 14% year over year across Q2 and Q3 2025, powered primarily by Japan. Two forces drove Japan’s outsized performance: the end of support for Windows 10, which is prompting widespread device replacements across businesses, schools, and government, and the GIGA Education Project, a national initiative to equip every student with a personal device. Outside Japan, growth was more modest due to macroeconomic and political headwinds and a slower pace of Windows 11 adoption, though organizations are beginning to refresh hardware purchased during or just before the pandemic.
Industry analysts note that while demand for Windows 11-ready machines is real, North America’s upgrade cycle is likely to stretch into 2026 as buyers navigate tariff-related costs and budget constraints.
Vendor standings underline the shifting dynamics:
– Lenovo strengthened its lead, climbing from 23.8% to 25.5% market share in Q3 2025, up 17.3% year over year.
– HP held second place at 19.8% with 10.7% growth.
– Apple posted 13.7% growth.
– The third-place vendor maintained a 13.3% share, down from 14.2%, with a modest 2.6% increase.
– Overall, most OEMs recorded growth in Q3 2025, largely driven by markets outside North America.
The takeaway for 2025: the global PC market is being reshaped by the Windows 11 transition, large-scale education deployments, and the replacement of aging fleets. North America’s tariff shock created a temporary whipsaw—front-loaded orders in early 2025 followed by a pause—while Asia-Pacific, led by Japan, carried the baton. Expect the upgrade momentum to continue, with many organizations deferring purchases into 2026 as they align budgets, OS readiness, and device strategies.
