Memory Prices Expected to Surge Through 2026 as DRAM and NAND Shortages Tighten
Memory prices are expected to climb sharply through the second half of 2026, with analysts warning that the global supply crunch is far from over. The pressure is being driven by strong demand from AI infrastructure, cloud computing, and high-performance data centers, while memory manufacturers continue to face limited production capacity and ongoing process transitions.
According to estimates from Jefferies Equity Research, the memory market could see another major price jump in the coming quarters. DRAM and NAND pricing is projected to rise by 40% to 50% in the third quarter of 2026 compared with the current quarter. That increase may be followed by another 30% to 40% rise in the fourth quarter of 2026.
The upward trend may not stop there. For 2027, analysts expect memory prices to remain elevated, with a possible 40% to 45% year-over-year increase. Meaningful relief may not arrive until 2028, when new manufacturing capacity is expected to add around 15% to 20% more supply. Even then, the impact may be limited because demand for AI servers, advanced computing systems, and high-bandwidth memory is expected to keep growing.
The key issue is that supply is increasingly being locked up by large technology companies through long-term agreements. Around half of total memory production capacity is already believed to be covered by long-term contracts between major memory suppliers and top-tier customers. That share could reportedly rise to around 70%, leaving less memory available for the wider consumer market.
This could directly affect the prices of everyday electronics. PCs, laptops, gaming consoles, smartphones, tablets, graphics cards, and other consumer devices all rely on DRAM or NAND storage. If manufacturers are forced to pay more for memory components, those higher costs are likely to be passed on to buyers.
Micron has already signed multiple strategic customer agreements, showing how aggressively major buyers are moving to secure future supply. Similar long-term arrangements across the industry are reshaping how memory is allocated, with cloud service providers and AI-focused companies taking priority over traditional consumer electronics.
The shortage is also being intensified by process node migration. As manufacturers shift to newer production technologies, output can become constrained during the transition. This reduces flexibility at a time when demand is already unusually strong.
There had been hopes that Chinese memory manufacturers could help ease global pricing pressure by offering cheaper DRAM and NAND. However, analysts now suggest that this expectation was overly optimistic. Chinese suppliers are not significantly undercutting global market prices, and much of their available output is focused on domestic demand rather than overseas markets.
Companies such as CXMT and YMTC may become more influential in the long term, especially as China continues expanding its semiconductor manufacturing capabilities. However, they are not expected to meaningfully disrupt global memory pricing during the 2026 to 2027 period. A bigger impact may come closer to 2028, when new fabs and production lines could increase available supply.
Apple is reportedly exploring the use of Chinese memory components as it looks for more supply options amid rising costs. With memory becoming more expensive across the board, major device makers are being pushed to diversify their sourcing strategies wherever possible.
At the same time, changes in production priorities could further tighten specific segments of the market. If major suppliers reduce or exit older memory production lines, certain types of DRAM used in existing consumer devices could become harder to source, adding more pressure to pricing.
For consumers, the outlook is clear: electronics could become more expensive over the next several quarters. Devices with larger memory and storage configurations may see the biggest price increases, especially premium smartphones, AI PCs, gaming laptops, workstations, and high-end computing hardware.
The memory market is now being shaped by three major forces: limited supply, surging AI demand, and long-term contracts that reserve capacity for the biggest buyers. Unless new production ramps faster than expected, DRAM and NAND prices are likely to remain high through 2026 and 2027.
A potential easing may come in 2028, but even that depends on whether new capacity can outpace the rapid growth of AI and cloud computing demand. Until then, manufacturers and consumers alike should prepare for a more expensive memory market.
