ASML Holding is seeing a clear shift in how chipmakers are planning for the future, and it all comes back to artificial intelligence. Company leadership says AI-driven demand is turning out to be more resilient than many expected, giving customers greater confidence to accelerate capacity plans that could keep orders strong for ASML’s most advanced lithography systems well into 2026 and beyond.
In a video interview released alongside ASML’s fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results, CEO Christophe Fouquet explained that customers have become more convinced in recent months that AI isn’t a short-lived surge. That growing confidence is translating into bigger medium-term investment plans across the semiconductor industry, which in turn is boosting demand for ASML’s highest-end tools used in both logic chips and memory chips. Fouquet noted that customers are preparing for a major expansion in manufacturing capacity beginning in 2026, with momentum continuing after that.
What’s notable is how broad this demand looks across the market. On the logic side, chipmakers are ramping leading-edge production as they move from 4nm to 3nm manufacturing and prepare for future 2nm rollouts. These node transitions matter because they typically require more advanced lithography—and that’s where ASML’s extreme ultraviolet (EUV) systems become essential for keeping chip features smaller, denser, and more power efficient for mobile devices and high-performance computing.
The memory market is also adding fuel. Fouquet pointed to strong demand not only for high-bandwidth memory, commonly tied to AI accelerators, but also for DDR memory products. With supply conditions expected to stay tight into 2026 and later, memory makers are moving to more advanced DRAM nodes that require a higher number of EUV layers. More EUV layers per chip generally means more demand for EUV capacity, which supports ASML’s order pipeline.
CFO Roger Dassen said ASML expects EUV revenue to rise significantly versus 2025 due to these trends. While the non-EUV systems business is expected to be broadly flat year over year, he emphasized that demand remains solid in advanced logic and memory, including metrology and inspection equipment used for tighter process control. He also highlighted expected growth in ASML’s installed base business, supported by the expanding global fleet of EUV tools and customer interest in upgrades as a faster way to increase output without waiting for brand-new systems.
Investors have been paying attention. ASML’s upbeat outlook helped push its shares to a record high in Amsterdam, and the positive sentiment carried into other semiconductor names as well. The market reaction reflects a growing belief that AI-related chip demand is not only holding up, but shaping long-term manufacturing investment decisions.
At the heart of ASML’s importance to the chip industry is its dominance in EUV lithography, the technology required to manufacture the most advanced semiconductors used in AI and high-performance computing. These machines are massive—roughly the size of a school bus and weighing around 150 tons—and they’re also among the most expensive pieces of manufacturing equipment in the world, priced at about $250 million per unit. EUV systems use a 13nm wavelength to etch extremely fine circuit patterns onto silicon wafers, enabling the dense designs modern AI workloads depend on.
The process behind EUV is famously complex. Tin droplets are hit tens of thousands of times per second by powerful lasers to generate EUV light, which is then guided through the system using ultra-precise mirrors made by Zeiss. ASML assembles the machines in the Netherlands and ships them in dozens of containers to chipmaking facilities around the world, including major operations run by TSMC, Samsung, SK Hynix, Intel, Micron, and Japan’s Rapidus.
Looking ahead, Fouquet said customer behavior is reinforcing the company’s longer-term expectations. AI applications are driving demand for more advanced logic and DRAM technology, increasing lithography intensity and encouraging broader EUV adoption across the industry. ASML continues to target 2030 revenue of between EUR44 billion and EUR60 billion, with gross margins of 56% to 60%, as AI-driven chip demand accelerates the need for its most advanced manufacturing systems.
