Apple’s iPhone 17 lineup is shaping up to be a major win, with strong demand helping the company build serious momentum going into the end of 2025. Even with softer interest in the iPhone Air compared to the rest of the range, the broader iPhone 17 family appears to be selling well enough that Apple could overtake Samsung and become the world’s largest smartphone manufacturer by sales volume.
A new projection from Counterpoint Research points to a shift at the very top of the global smartphone rankings. The firm expects Samsung to close out 2025 with a solid 4.6% year-over-year increase in smartphone shipments. However, Apple is forecast to grow even faster, with iPhone shipments projected to rise 10% year over year. If that plays out, Apple’s global smartphone market share would climb to 19.4%, which would put it ahead of every other smartphone brand worldwide and place Samsung in second.
This outlook follows earlier findings that show Apple strengthening its position in key markets. One report highlighted that Apple’s share of the $600+ smartphone segment at T-Mobile rose by 8 points from September 2022 through September 2025, reaching 80%. Another report noted that iPhones accounted for a quarter of all smartphones sold in China during October—something Apple had only managed once before, back in 2022.
China’s performance is particularly notable because it’s the world’s largest smartphone market and often serves as a key indicator of global momentum. Counterpoint’s data indicated that overall smartphone sales in China increased 8% year over year in October, fueled in large part by a sharp jump in iPhone sales. iPhone sales surged 37% year over year, and around 80% of those sales were attributed to the new iPhone 17 lineup.
Interestingly, that China-focused report didn’t highlight the iPhone Air at all, which has led to questions about whether Apple’s ultra-slim model is catching on at the same pace as the rest of the lineup. Still, the broader picture suggests that the iPhone 17 series is doing the heavy lifting—and doing it well.
To put the projections into real numbers, Apple sold 231.8 million iPhones in 2024. A 10% increase on that base would put Apple at roughly 255 million iPhones shipped by the end of 2025. If those estimates hold, Apple won’t just have a strong year—it could finish 2025 as the top smartphone seller globally, marking a major milestone in the ongoing Apple vs Samsung battle for market leadership.
