As the US tariff exemption period draws to a close, the global notebook market braces for a potential shake-up. With an elevated base of notebook inventory, analysts predict a 3.2% decline in shipments for the third quarter of 2025. This follows a surprisingly robust second quarter, where shipments (excluding detachable models) rose by 11.8% quarter-over-quarter.
This growth was fueled by major brands ramping up their inventory, anticipating the results of the US Section 232 semiconductor investigation due later this quarter. The fear of steep tariffs on consumer electronics, including notebooks, prompted companies to preemptively boost production, especially for North American distribution channels. The educational sector also contributed to this surge, benefitting from the back-to-school season.
Looking ahead, the third quarter may see higher notebook prices due to the impending tariffs and rising component costs. The aggressive inventory strategies in the second quarter have created a high shipment base, which could impact demand in North America moving forward.
In summary, while the second quarter showed impressive growth, the approaching tariff decisions and supply chain dynamics set a more cautious tone for the rest of the year. Brands will need to navigate these challenges carefully to maintain their market positions.
