Gamers eagerly anticipating the release of Grand Theft Auto VI may have to wait until 2026, according to industry analysts. However, there’s more to worry about than just the release date. With the excitement surrounding GTA VI, it’s possible that Take-Two Interactive and Rockstar Games might seize the opportunity to significantly increase the game’s base price to $100, which could set a precedent for other high-budget games to follow.
Analyst Matthew Ball shared insights in his “State of Video Gaming in 2025” presentation, predicting that GTA VI could reshape pricing trends in the gaming industry. Historically, video game prices have decreased in real-dollar terms over 44 years, unlike other entertainment sectors like movies and concerts, where prices have steadily increased.
This potential price hike could impact the entire gaming industry, regardless of a studio’s size. AAA games, which used to cost around $50 million to produce 15 years ago, now require budgets between $200 million and $500 million or more. Notably, Minecraft and GTA V are the top-selling packaged games ever by unit sales.
There is an expectation that GTA VI will break the previously unbreachable $70 price threshold, with estimates suggesting a retail price between $80 and $100. Ball speculates that the game might average around $91. Such a change could prompt a $10 increase across different game prices: games previously at $50 could rise to $60, $60 games to $70, and $70 titles could jump to $80.
If this trajectory holds true, players, especially those purchasing AAA games, might need to reconsider their budgets. These figures only represent base prices, meaning Deluxe and Premium editions will likely see even greater price hikes.
Ball also explored how generative and agentic AI could influence gaming, as well as how devices like the Nintendo Switch and Steam Deck have revitalized interest in handheld AA/AAA gaming.
In an intriguing twist, while some PC and console gamers are exploring other entertainment options, Ball notes that the PC gaming sector has grown by 20% since 2021, while console gaming has stagnated. This growth is attributed to several advantages of the PC platform, including an expansive library with near-complete backward compatibility, multitasking capabilities, PlayStation exclusives arriving on PC, premium Roblox games, and the emergence of Windows-based gaming handhelds.
