Apple’s plan to supercharge Siri with Google’s Gemini AI could end up being one of Google’s most valuable AI partnerships yet, according to a fresh estimate from Deepwater Asset Management.
The firm’s Gene Munster believes the Gemini-to-Siri deal could be worth as much as $5 billion to Google, a figure that highlights just how expensive and strategically important large-scale AI deployments have become—especially when they’re built into a platform as massive as the iPhone.
Earlier reporting indicated Apple may pay Google roughly $1 billion per year as a licensing-style fee tied to running a massive custom Gemini model—reportedly a 1.2-trillion-parameter system—on Apple’s private servers. In this setup, Gemini would handle more complex requests while Apple maintains its privacy stance by using encrypted, stateless processing, meaning user data isn’t retained in a way that compromises confidentiality.
For Apple users, the most visible payoff is expected to be a significantly upgraded Siri. The revamped assistant is anticipated to deliver features that have been long requested, including deeper in-app actions, the ability to understand personal context, and on-screen awareness so Siri can respond based on what you’re looking at. This upgraded Siri experience could arrive with a future iOS 26.4 update, bringing Apple’s voice assistant closer to the more “agent-like” AI helpers people increasingly expect.
If the reported $1 billion annual payment is accurate, it also suggests a longer runway for the partnership. A five-year arrangement would imply Apple could rely on Gemini-backed capabilities through around 2031, meaning Siri may not be powered entirely by Apple’s own AI models for quite some time.
That said, Apple may not see this as a drawback at all. From a consumer perspective, the underlying AI engine is largely invisible. If Siri successfully books a restaurant reservation, summarizes messages, or completes tasks across apps, most people will credit Siri—and by extension Apple—for the smoother experience. In other words, Apple gets a smarter assistant without needing to publicly frame it as “powered by” another company, while Google benefits from a high-value licensing deal and broad real-world deployment of Gemini at scale.
The result is a partnership where both companies stand to win: Apple accelerates Siri’s AI transformation while maintaining its privacy messaging, and Google potentially secures billions in revenue for supplying advanced AI capabilities behind the scenes.
